Australia’s Warm Winter and the Future of the Ski Industry

Australia’s alpine tourism industry is entering an important period of change. The unusually warm conditions experienced during the 2026 winter brought many of the challenges facing Australian ski resorts into sharper focus. Limited natural snowfall, periods of rain, rapid snow loss, unusually shallow snow depths and increasing dependence on artificial snow affected resort operations across the south-eastern alpine regions. Although skiing and snowboarding remain popular winter activities and Australia continues to have major mountain resorts with sophisticated infrastructure, the 2026 season raised an increasingly important question: how will the Australian ski industry operate if winters continue becoming warmer and reliable natural snow becomes harder to predict?

The answer is more complicated than suggesting that snow will simply disappear. Australian snowfall has always varied dramatically from one winter to another. A disappointing season can be followed by an excellent one, and even during warmer climatic conditions powerful cold fronts may occasionally deliver heavy snow. The greater concern for resorts, businesses, employees and alpine communities is reliability. A commercially successful ski industry depends not only on occasional large snowstorms but also on having sufficiently cold conditions for snow to accumulate, survive and remain usable over a reasonably long winter season.

The 2026 experience illustrated this problem clearly. Artificial snow allowed important ski runs to operate even when surrounding terrain had limited natural cover. However, snowmaking itself has climatic limits. Conventional snow guns work best when the combination of temperature and humidity is sufficiently favourable. Warm nights can therefore reduce the amount of time available for artificial snow production precisely when resorts need it most.

The future of Australian skiing is consequently likely to depend on a combination of improved snowmaking technology, strategic investment, efficient snow management, higher-elevation terrain and a major expansion of year-round tourism. Skiing is unlikely to disappear suddenly, but alpine destinations may gradually evolve from businesses centred almost entirely around winter snow into broader mountain resorts operating through all four seasons.

Why the 2026 Australian Ski Season Was So Challenging

The central difficulty during the 2026 winter was unusually warm weather across Australia’s main alpine regions. Temperature is one of the most important variables determining whether mountain precipitation falls as snow, sleet or rain.

When atmospheric temperatures are sufficiently low, moisture can freeze and reach the ground as snow. When temperatures rise, precipitation is increasingly likely to arrive as rain. Even after snow has accumulated, warmer air can accelerate melting and reduce the depth of the existing snowpack.

This creates particular difficulties for Australian ski areas because many operate relatively close to the climatic boundary separating dependable snow conditions from rainfall. A temperature increase that might have only a limited effect at a very high international resort can make a major difference on Australian mountains.

The problem becomes especially serious at lower elevations.

Higher slopes generally remain colder because temperature usually decreases with altitude. They are therefore more likely to receive snow during borderline weather systems and more likely to preserve existing snow for longer.

Lower slopes can experience very different conditions during the same storm. Upper parts of a resort might receive snow while the base area experiences rain.

For a modern ski resort, this distinction is critical. A mountain cannot operate efficiently with only isolated patches of snow on its highest peaks. Resorts need connected trails, lift access, beginner areas, transport routes and safe approaches to accommodation and village facilities.

A poor lower-mountain snowpack can therefore restrict operations even when upper slopes remain comparatively well covered.

Rain Can Be as Important as a Lack of Snow

A successful ski season cannot be judged simply by the total amount of precipitation recorded in the mountains.

A resort may experience a relatively wet winter while still receiving limited usable snow if much of that precipitation falls as rain.

Rain can also damage an established snowpack.

Liquid water adds heat to the snow, compacts the surface and accelerates melting. When snow depths are already shallow, a significant rain event can remove substantial amounts of cover within a short period.

Repeated rain events are particularly difficult because resorts may spend considerable time and money producing artificial snow only to see parts of the manufactured base deteriorate during the next warm spell.

This creates an expensive cycle.

Snowmaking crews establish a base during a cold period. Temperatures rise. Rain or warm winds reduce the snowpack. Resorts then have to wait for another sufficiently cold period before manufacturing replacement snow.

The process can require additional electricity, water, staff time, grooming and machinery.

Why Snow Depth Matters More Than One Big Snowfall

Individual snowstorms often receive enormous public attention.

Forecasts suggesting that a mountain could receive 30, 40 or 50 centimetres of fresh snow can generate enthusiasm among skiers and snowboarders. Photographs of freshly covered mountains may also create the impression that a season has suddenly become excellent.

However, the long-term quality of a ski season depends much more heavily on accumulated snow depth than on one isolated snowfall event.

A large storm falling onto a deep, cold base can dramatically improve skiing conditions because the new snow becomes part of an already established snowpack.

The same storm falling onto warm or partially bare terrain may have a very different result. Some snow can compact quickly, melt from underneath or disappear during the next period of warmer weather.

The temperature following a storm is therefore almost as important as the snowfall itself.

Cold conditions allow fresh snow to remain.

Warm winds, sunshine and rain can rapidly remove it.

For resort planning, accumulated snow depth and the duration of snow cover are therefore more informative than the snowfall total from a single weather system.

Spencers Creek and the 2026 Snow Depth

One important reference point for Australian snow conditions is Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales.

Located at roughly 1,830 metres above sea level, the site has a long history of snow-depth measurements and is commonly used to compare the relative strength of different Australian winters.

During 2026, snow depth at Spencers Creek reached approximately 94.5 centimetres in August before falling considerably afterward.

A seasonal peak below one metre represents a very limited natural snow reserve when compared with strong seasons in which high-elevation snow depths can exceed two metres.

The difference is important because deep snowpacks provide resilience.

If a mountain enters late winter with a substantial accumulation of snow, it can often survive temporary warmer weather without losing all usable cover.

A shallow base has far less protection.

Several days of warm temperatures, rain or strong winds can quickly expose vegetation and ground.

This can accelerate snow loss further because dark vegetation and soil absorb more solar radiation than reflective white snow.

2026 Australian Snow Season Overview

Why Australia’s Mountains Are Particularly Sensitive to Warming

Australian ski resorts face geographic limitations that distinguish them from some major international ski regions.

Australia is not a high-mountain country by global standards.

Mount Kosciuszko, the highest mountain in Australia, reaches 2,228 metres above sea level. Many commercial ski runs are located significantly below that elevation.

By comparison, ski resorts in parts of Europe and North America can operate terrain at elevations above 3,000 metres.

Higher altitude generally provides colder temperatures and a larger margin between normal winter conditions and the temperature at which snow begins changing to rain.

Australian resorts do not enjoy the same margin.

They often operate within a narrow temperature range where a difference of only a few degrees can determine whether a weather system delivers useful snow or damaging rainfall.

This sensitivity means relatively small increases in average winter temperature can produce disproportionately large effects.

Australia's Maritime Climate Adds More Variability

Australia’s alpine areas are also influenced by a maritime climate.

Weather systems can carry significant moisture toward the mountains, but moisture alone does not create snow.

A successful snowfall requires moisture and sufficiently cold air to arrive at the same time.

When those two elements combine, Australian mountains can receive substantial snowfall.

When moisture arrives with warmer air, the result can be rain.

A strong season therefore depends on repeated combinations of cold temperatures, favourable storm tracks and periods of cold weather between storms that allow accumulated snow to remain on the ground.

When one of these components is missing, mountain conditions can change rapidly.

Australia Has Always Experienced Variable Snow Seasons

It is important not to interpret every poor winter as an entirely new phenomenon.

Australian ski history contains both strong and weak seasons.

Large-scale atmospheric patterns, storm tracks, ocean conditions, cold fronts and moisture availability can all influence individual winters.

One season might produce repeated major storms.

Another might have long periods of dry or mild weather.

This means a single warm winter cannot determine exactly what every future season will look like.

Major Australian snowstorms will continue to occur.

Cold winters will still happen.

Some future seasons may provide excellent skiing and snowboarding.

The more important long-term question concerns the average direction of conditions across many decades.

If poor winters gradually become more common, if snow arrives later, if it melts earlier or if lower elevations increasingly receive rain instead of snow, resorts face greater business uncertainty even though exceptional winters continue occurring occasionally.

Reliability Is More Important Than Occasional Record Snowfalls

A ski resort cannot base its financial strategy on the hope that one major storm will rescue an otherwise poor season.

Resort operators make investments months or years in advance.

They maintain lifts, employ permanent staff, recruit seasonal workers, operate grooming fleets, purchase equipment and manage accommodation.

Visitors also make decisions well in advance.

A family booking a winter holiday may spend substantial amounts on accommodation, transport, lift access, rental equipment, lessons and food.

If snow becomes increasingly unpredictable, consumers may become less willing to make expensive bookings several months before travelling.

That uncertainty can affect the entire alpine tourism economy.

The Longer-Term Decline in Alpine Snow

The concern surrounding recent warm winters is linked to longer-term observations of changing Australian snow conditions.

Research referenced in the supplied material indicates reductions in maximum snow depth, the duration of snow cover and the number of days when snow remains on the ground.

Late-season conditions can be especially important.

September has traditionally provided opportunities for spring skiing in Australia. Resorts entering September with a deep winter snowpack can often remain operational despite increasing sunshine and warmer daytime temperatures.

A thin snowpack behaves differently.

Because there is less accumulated snow available, warm weather can reduce the base much more rapidly.

The consequences of a weak winter maximum can therefore continue long after the date when the maximum depth itself was recorded.

The Effective Snowline Is Moving Higher

One of the clearest consequences of warmer average temperatures is the growing vulnerability of lower elevations.

As conditions warm, the altitude at which precipitation is reliably able to fall and remain as snow tends to rise.

This does not mean a perfectly defined snowline moves steadily uphill every year.

Weather conditions vary continuously.

Instead, it means lower areas increasingly spend more time near or above the temperature range where rain becomes more likely and snow melts quickly.

Higher terrain may therefore retain useful snow for longer.

Over time, this could produce an increasingly uneven ski industry.

Some high-elevation resorts may maintain relatively dependable winter operations with the assistance of snowmaking, while lower mountains become more dependent on short cold periods, artificial snow and alternative attractions.

The same contrast can occur within one resort.

Upper lifts may continue operating while lower trails become heavily dependent on manufactured snow.

Artificial Snow Has Become Critical

Snowmaking is one of the most important technologies supporting modern Australian skiing.

During periods of limited natural snowfall, artificial snow can provide a skiable surface on strategically important terrain.

Manufactured snow can be concentrated on beginner slopes, lift access routes, high-traffic areas and major connecting trails.

This allows resorts to create a functional network even when natural snow coverage across the surrounding landscape is poor.

Artificial snow is typically denser than fresh natural powder.

That density can be advantageous because it creates a durable base capable of supporting large numbers of skiers and snowboarders.

Once groomed, manufactured snow can provide a consistent surface capable of surviving heavier traffic than some types of fresh natural snow.

During difficult seasons, this durability becomes extremely valuable.

How Conventional Snowmaking Works

Traditional snowmaking involves releasing very small water droplets into cold air.

If the atmospheric conditions are suitable, those droplets cool and freeze before reaching the ground.

The process is influenced by more than the ordinary air temperature displayed on a weather forecast.

Humidity also matters.

Snowmaking operators therefore pay close attention to wet-bulb temperature.

Wet-bulb temperature reflects the combined influence of air temperature and humidity.

When the air is dry, evaporation can cool water droplets, allowing snowmaking to operate under conditions where the standard air temperature may be slightly above zero degrees Celsius.

When humidity is high, evaporation is less effective and snowmaking becomes more difficult.

For this reason, a cold and dry night may be extremely productive for snowmaking, while a similarly cool but humid night might produce far poorer results.

The Snowmaking Paradox

Snowmaking creates an important contradiction for a warming ski industry.

As natural snowfall becomes less reliable, resorts need manufactured snow more frequently.

But as temperatures rise, the number of suitable hours for conventional snowmaking can also decline.

A resort may therefore need to produce more snow in less time.

This changes the type of infrastructure required.

Instead of relying on a modest snowmaking system operating gradually across many cold nights, resorts may increasingly require powerful networks capable of producing large quantities of snow whenever a short cold-weather opportunity appears.

That could require larger pumping stations, more water storage, additional pipes, automated controls and greater electrical capacity.

The objective becomes speed.

When favourable conditions arrive, a resort must be able to use them immediately.

Snowmaking Requires Major Investment

Artificial snow is not simply created by purchasing several machines and placing them beside ski runs.

A large modern snowmaking network can involve extensive infrastructure.

Water must be sourced, stored and pumped.

Pipelines need to carry water across the mountain.

Electrical systems must support pumps and equipment.

Weather sensors are needed to monitor conditions.

Hydrants and snow guns must be installed throughout the terrain.

Resorts also require grooming machines to distribute snow after it has been produced.

Maintenance adds another expense.

Staff must inspect pumps, pipelines, electrical systems and snow guns.

Energy consumption can be substantial.

Expanding artificial snow coverage across a large resort therefore represents a major capital decision.

Why Larger Resorts May Have an Advantage

The economics of adaptation may favour large destination resorts.

Major resorts can serve large numbers of visitors and generate income from accommodation, lift passes, lessons, retail, food and other activities.

That larger revenue base provides more capacity to invest in sophisticated snowmaking systems and other infrastructure.

Smaller resorts may face a more difficult financial calculation.

They can still benefit enormously from artificial snow, but constructing extensive systems across large areas may be difficult to justify.

A smaller operation might instead focus on maintaining a limited beginner area, snow-play zone or key access route.

This could gradually change the nature of some lower or smaller destinations.

Rather than providing extensive traditional skiing, they may specialise in snow experiences designed for beginners, families and day visitors.

Can Artificial Snow Save Australian Ski Resorts?

Snowmaking is likely to remain one of the strongest adaptation tools available to Australia’s alpine industry.

It can establish early-season bases when natural snow is limited.

It can repair worn or melted sections of ski runs.

It can protect heavily used access trails.

It can extend operations after natural snowfall becomes limited.

But snowmaking cannot make a ski resort completely independent of weather.

Traditional systems still require suitable atmospheric conditions.

Artificial snow can still melt.

Rain can still damage it.

Warm winds can reduce it.

Producing larger quantities requires more infrastructure, water, energy and operating expenditure.

Artificial snow should therefore be understood as a powerful resilience tool rather than a complete substitute for winter.

Temperature-Independent Snow Production

Another technology attracting interest is refrigerated snow production.

Sometimes described as snow factories, these systems can create snow or crushed ice even when outdoor conditions are too warm for conventional snow guns.

Instead of relying completely on naturally cold air, refrigeration equipment is used to freeze water.

The technology can be valuable in selected locations.

A resort might use refrigerated snow for a beginner area, tubing park, children's zone, competition venue or promotional event.

However, manufacturing refrigerated snow for hundreds of hectares of mountain terrain would involve enormous cost and logistical complexity.

Temperature-independent systems may therefore expand the range of adaptation options without eliminating the need for cold natural winter weather.

Shorter Ski Seasons Create Major Economic Pressure

For many alpine businesses, season length is just as important as the quality of skiing during the busiest weeks.

Mountain businesses prepare for winter throughout the year.

Accommodation properties require maintenance.

Retailers purchase stock.

Restaurants recruit staff.

Ski schools hire instructors.

Resorts employ lift operators, technicians, patrollers, groomer drivers, snowmakers and guest-service teams.

Equipment rental businesses maintain large inventories.

A season shortened by several weeks can therefore have a major financial impact.

Many operating expenses remain even when visitor numbers decline.

Buildings still require maintenance.

Equipment still has to be financed.

Permanent employees still need to be paid.

Insurance and infrastructure costs remain.

A shorter season can consequently reduce profitability much faster than it reduces fixed expenses.

Seasonal Workers Face Greater Uncertainty

Seasonal employment is an important part of Australian ski culture.

Workers often relocate to mountain towns specifically for winter jobs.

A normal season can provide months of employment in hospitality, lift operations, rental shops, snowmaking, grooming, ski instruction and other services.

Early closures create uncertainty.

Workers who expected several months of income may suddenly receive fewer hours.

Many also face accommodation and living expenses in expensive tourism destinations.

If employment opportunities become increasingly unpredictable, workers may hesitate to relocate for Australian ski seasons.

That could create recruitment difficulties for businesses that depend heavily on experienced seasonal employees.

Alpine Communities Depend on More Than Lift Tickets

The economic influence of snow tourism extends well beyond resort boundaries.

Visitors spend money throughout the region.

They purchase fuel.

They stay in hotels, apartments and holiday properties.

They eat in restaurants and cafes.

They shop in supermarkets.

They hire equipment.

They use transport services.

They visit attractions.

Gateway communities can therefore experience financial consequences when mountain visitation declines.

Jindabyne in New South Wales is closely connected with Snowy Mountains tourism.

Victorian alpine communities and nearby towns also benefit from winter visitor expenditure.

For businesses receiving a large percentage of annual income during a short winter period, a poor season can have effects lasting well beyond spring.

Adaptation Could Influence Ski Holiday Prices

Maintaining skiable terrain in warmer winters can be expensive.

If resorts need larger snowmaking systems, greater water storage, more efficient lifts, modern grooming equipment and substantial investment in alternative attractions, operating costs may rise.

Australian snow holidays are already significant purchases for many households.

The final cost may include accommodation, transport, rental equipment, lift access, clothing, food and lessons.

If resort expenses continue increasing, some additional costs could eventually be reflected in visitor prices.

This presents a difficult balance.

Resorts must invest enough to maintain a reliable experience while keeping that experience affordable enough to attract domestic visitors.

If prices rise while snow reliability declines, customers may consider alternative holidays.

International Competition for Australian Skiers

Australia's ski industry also competes with overseas destinations.

New Zealand is relatively accessible from Australia.

Japan has become particularly attractive to Australian skiers seeking natural powder.

North American and European ski destinations appeal to travellers prepared to spend more on international holidays.

Australian resorts retain important advantages.

They are closer to home.

Trips can be shorter.

Travel planning is simpler.

Many families have long-standing traditions associated with particular mountains.

Domestic resorts are also familiar environments for beginners.

However, customers comparing a costly Australian mountain holiday with an overseas trip may increasingly consider snow reliability as part of the calculation.

Skiing in Australia Is Not About to Vanish

It is easy to turn discussions about warming winters into dramatic predictions.

The reality is more complex.

Australia will continue receiving snow.

Cold fronts will continue crossing the alpine regions.

Powerful snowstorms can continue producing deep accumulations.

Some future winters will be excellent.

Higher resorts with strong infrastructure may remain viable for many decades.

The more useful question is not whether snow will ever fall again.

The important question is how often Australian resorts will receive enough snow, for a sufficiently long period, to support commercially successful ski operations.

Reliability, not absolute disappearance, is the central issue.

Strong Snow Years Could Become Even More Valuable

Excellent winters may become increasingly important to the industry's public image.

After several weak seasons, a major snowfall can produce enormous excitement.

Photographs of deeply covered mountains attract attention.

Skiers may make last-minute bookings.

Accommodation demand can increase rapidly.

Good seasons remind Australians why mountain holidays remain attractive.

However, businesses cannot depend entirely on occasional boom years.

A stable tourism industry generally benefits from predictable demand rather than extreme fluctuations between exceptional winters and very poor ones.

This is another reason diversification has become so important.

Adaptation Extends Beyond Snowmaking

Future alpine planning is unlikely to rely on one technological solution.

Snowmaking will remain important, but resorts can also improve how existing snow is stored, groomed and distributed.

Trail design can play a role.

Some slopes naturally retain snow better because of elevation, orientation, shade or wind patterns.

Resorts may increasingly prioritise those areas when making infrastructure decisions.

Snow can also be moved from areas where it accumulates naturally to locations where it is needed most.

Improved weather forecasting allows operators to identify short snowmaking windows in advance.

Automated equipment can then respond quickly.

Lift infrastructure can also be redesigned to focus visitor movement toward the most reliable terrain.

The cumulative effect of many improvements may be more important than any single technological breakthrough.

Four-Season Tourism Could Transform the Industry

One of the biggest changes may have little to do with snow.

Australian ski resorts are increasingly capable of operating as year-round mountain destinations.

Alpine environments can attract visitors during spring, summer and autumn through mountain biking, hiking, scenic chairlift rides, cycling, trail running, festivals, fishing, conferences, food events and nature tourism.

Developing these markets reduces dependence on winter revenue.

A resort generating meaningful income across twelve months is financially better positioned to survive a disappointing ski season than one earning most of its annual revenue during a few winter weeks.

Mountain biking has particular potential.

Chairlifts built for winter skiing can be used to transport cyclists during warmer months.

Purpose-built trails encourage visitors to stay overnight, hire equipment and spend money in local restaurants and accommodation.

Existing winter infrastructure can therefore support an entirely different tourism economy outside the snow season.

Summer May Become Economically Essential

Summer tourism has historically been treated by many ski destinations as an additional source of revenue.

That relationship could change.

Future alpine resorts may increasingly be mountain destinations first and ski areas second.

Skiing could remain a major part of the business while no longer carrying the entire financial burden.

Longer non-winter operating periods could create more stable employment.

Restaurants could remain open for more of the year.

Hotels could improve occupancy outside winter.

Permanent workers could replace some seasonal employment.

Local communities could receive more consistent visitor spending.

Diversification does not eliminate climate risk because bushfires, extreme heat and other environmental pressures can also affect alpine regions.

Nevertheless, it reduces dependence on snow as the single factor determining economic success.

Climate Risk Is Becoming a Business Issue

Changing winter conditions are not only environmental concerns.

They affect finance and investment.

A company investing in alpine property or infrastructure must consider how the asset could perform over several decades.

A ski lift built today may remain operational for many years.

Snowmaking reservoirs, pumping stations and accommodation developments also represent long-term investments.

Decision-makers therefore need to think beyond next winter.

They may consider whether lower-altitude terrain will remain commercially useful.

They may ask how much additional snowmaking will be needed.

They may evaluate whether sufficient cold periods will remain available.

They may compare the cost of winter infrastructure with potential income from summer attractions.

Climate conditions increasingly become part of ordinary financial planning.

Long Infrastructure Lifetimes Change the Calculation

Mountain infrastructure is expensive and durable.

A major chairlift is not intended to operate for only a few seasons.

Infrastructure built during the late 2020s could still be operating well into the 2040s or beyond.

This creates difficult strategic questions.

Should new lift capacity be concentrated at higher elevations?

Should a resort expand lower slopes that may require heavy snowmaking?

How much water storage is reasonable?

Will conventional snowmaking remain efficient enough?

Can a mountain generate sufficient summer revenue to support major investment?

The answers will differ from one resort to another.

Elevation, geography, visitor numbers, available capital and existing infrastructure all influence what is practical.

Water Will Become Increasingly Important

Snowmaking requires water.

Although much of that water eventually melts and returns to the surrounding catchment, resorts still need access to adequate supplies at the moment when cold conditions make snow production possible.

Water storage can therefore become strategically important.

A resort may capture or store water during periods of greater availability and then use it when snowmaking conditions occur.

Larger reservoirs can increase operational flexibility.

However, expanding water infrastructure may also increase discussion about environmental protection, water allocation and land management.

Efficiency will therefore become increasingly valuable.

Technology capable of producing more useful snow while carefully managing water consumption can improve both economic and environmental performance.

Energy Efficiency Matters Too

Pumping large quantities of water across a mountain requires electricity.

Moving water uphill can be especially energy intensive.

Compressors, pumps and other equipment add further consumption.

As resorts expand artificial snow production, energy efficiency can influence operating costs.

Newer snow guns can be more efficient than older equipment.

Automated systems can also improve performance by operating only when conditions are suitable.

Weather stations located across the mountain can continuously monitor humidity and temperature.

Computer-controlled systems can respond automatically when the required wet-bulb temperature is reached.

This can be particularly useful during short cold periods.

Instead of losing valuable time while staff manually prepare equipment, automated systems can begin producing snow quickly.

Renewable electricity, onsite generation and energy storage may also become increasingly important in future mountain operations.

Australia’s Alpine Environment Has Value Beyond Tourism

The Australian alpine region is not simply a recreational landscape.

It contains distinctive ecosystems, plants and animals adapted to cold conditions.

Snow influences those environments in several ways.

It insulates soil during winter.

It stores water temporarily.

It affects the timing of spring moisture.

It influences vegetation and wildlife habitat.

Changes in the duration and depth of snow cover can therefore have environmental consequences beyond skiing.

Future resort management will need to balance tourism development, climate adaptation and ecological protection.

Expanding infrastructure is not only an engineering or financial decision.

It also involves careful management of sensitive mountain environments.

Early-Season Snow Does Not Guarantee a Good Winter

Large snowfalls in May or early June can generate excitement.

However, early snow alone does not determine whether a winter will be successful.

If sustained cold conditions do not follow, much of the snow can disappear.

A dependable ski season requires repeated snowfall and sufficiently cool temperatures across several months.

The same principle applies to one large midwinter storm.

A major snowfall can improve conditions dramatically, but it cannot always compensate for prolonged warmth before and after the event.

Seasonal accumulation remains the more important measure.

What the Changing Climate Means for Perisher and Thredbo

New South Wales contains some of Australia’s highest commercial ski terrain.

Perisher and Thredbo benefit from relatively high elevations compared with many Australian alternatives.

That provides a degree of climatic advantage.

Higher terrain is generally colder and more capable of retaining snow.

Large visitor markets and substantial snowmaking infrastructure also improve the ability of major resorts to adapt.

However, high elevation does not make them immune to warm winters.

During extremely mild conditions, even major resorts may experience rain, melting and limited natural snow.

The future strategy of high-altitude destinations may therefore involve increasingly sophisticated snowmaking, efficient lifts and careful concentration of snow onto strategically important terrain.

What Warmer Winters Mean for Victorian Resorts

Victoria has several well-known alpine destinations, including Falls Creek, Mount Hotham, Mount Buller and Mount Baw Baw.

Each has different elevations, terrain characteristics and infrastructure.

The effect of warmer winters is therefore unlikely to be identical across all resorts.

Higher terrain generally has an advantage.

Lower areas tend to spend more time near the climatic threshold between snow and rain.

That does not mean every lower resort will become economically unviable.

A destination can adapt by changing what it offers.

Snow play, beginner skiing, mountain biking, sightseeing, events and other attractions can all become important.

However, providing extensive natural-snow skiing becomes more challenging when the altitude supporting reliable snow gradually increases.

Smaller Resorts May Follow a Different Path

Smaller ski areas serve an important role in Australia.

They can provide accessible snow experiences for families and beginners.

Some are closer to major population centres.

They may offer quieter environments and simpler introductions to winter recreation.

However, they often have less financial capacity than major destination resorts.

Extending artificial snow across an entire mountain can be extremely expensive.

A smaller destination may therefore choose to guarantee snow only in limited areas.

A concentrated snow-play zone or beginner slope could become more practical than maintaining extensive skiing.

Over time, some lower-altitude resorts may evolve into winter recreation parks rather than traditional large-scale ski areas.

Australia’s Ski Industry Still Has Important Strengths

The challenges facing Australian snow tourism should not obscure its advantages.

Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra provide large population markets within relatively easy reach of the mountains.

Domestic trips require less planning than long-haul international holidays.

Families often have strong emotional connections with particular resorts.

Large Australian ski areas already have experienced staff, snowmaking systems, grooming equipment and substantial tourism infrastructure.

Operators have also dealt with highly variable weather for many years.

Adaptation is therefore not an entirely new concept.

What may change is the scale at which adaptation is required.

Rather than responding occasionally to poor natural snowfall, resorts may increasingly design their entire business model around variable winter conditions.

Better Technology Could Extend Skiing

Snowmaking technology continues improving.

Modern systems can operate more efficiently and respond more quickly to changing conditions.

Weather monitoring has become more sophisticated.

Computer-controlled equipment can adjust water and air flow according to temperature and humidity.

When cold periods become brief, speed and automation become valuable.

A resort capable of producing large quantities of artificial snow during a twelve-hour cold window may have an advantage over one needing several days to achieve the same coverage.

Future improvements in pumps, snow guns, forecasting and control systems could therefore extend the practical viability of skiing even as natural conditions become more difficult.

Snow Farming Could Become More Common

Snow farming refers broadly to collecting, moving, preserving or strategically managing snow.

Instead of treating snow as something that remains exactly where it falls, operators can relocate it to critical sections of a resort.

Snow naturally accumulates unevenly because of wind, slope shape and vegetation.

Grooming machinery can redistribute those deposits.

In some international locations, snow has even been stored beneath insulating material through warmer months for later reuse.

Whether large-scale summer snow storage becomes economically practical in Australia remains uncertain.

However, smaller versions of the idea could support race training, opening events or beginner areas.

Like artificial snowmaking, snow farming is best understood as one additional tool rather than a complete solution.

Winter Sports Training Could Be Affected

Australian ski areas are important not only for recreational visitors.

They provide domestic training environments for competitive skiers, snowboarders and other winter athletes.

Shorter seasons could reduce the amount of local training available.

Elite competitors may be able to travel overseas, but international training is expensive.

It can be particularly difficult for younger athletes and developing competitors.

Maintaining reliable artificial snow on dedicated training courses could therefore become increasingly important to Australian winter-sport development.

Booking Behaviour May Change

Less predictable snow can influence how travellers organise holidays.

Historically, families have often booked accommodation months ahead, especially for school holidays and popular weekends.

If travellers become less confident about snow conditions, more may delay booking until closer to their planned trip.

This could increase last-minute demand during good conditions.

For tourism operators, however, late booking makes revenue and staffing more difficult to forecast.

Businesses may respond with more flexible cancellation policies.

Snow guarantees or alternative activity packages could become more common.

Resorts may also promote holidays that include skiing when conditions are good but provide other activities if snow is limited.

Ski Tourism Could Become Concentrated at Fewer Mountains

If high-altitude resorts maintain greater reliability, visitor demand may gradually shift toward them.

This could provide major resorts with larger markets.

However, concentration can create secondary problems.

Accommodation demand may rise.

Roads and transport systems can become crowded.

Lift queues may increase during peak periods.

Prices may rise.

Meanwhile, communities surrounding lower resorts could lose visitor expenditure.

The future geography of Australian snow tourism may therefore change even if total public interest in skiing remains strong.

Could Australian Ski Seasons Become Much Shorter?

Climate projections discussed in the supplied material suggest shorter ski seasons are a serious long-term possibility.

The exact effect depends on elevation, location, future warming, snowmaking technology and assumptions about what constitutes a skiable day.

Higher resorts generally perform better in these scenarios.

Artificial snow can substantially improve the number of usable skiing days.

However, maintaining traditional historical season lengths becomes increasingly difficult as temperatures rise.

This should not be interpreted as meaning each winter will automatically be shorter than the previous one.

Natural variation will remain significant.

A cold and snowy winter could occur after several poor seasons.

The issue is the direction of the long-term average.

The 2030s May Be an Important Adaptation Period

Investment made during the late 2020s and 2030s could strongly influence the industry's future.

Projects may include expanded snowmaking networks, reservoirs, lift upgrades, automated weather monitoring, energy-efficient infrastructure and summer attractions.

Gateway communities may also need to adapt.

Infrastructure designed almost entirely around intense winter peaks could evolve toward supporting visitors across the entire year.

Regional planning may increasingly consider alpine climate resilience, transport, environmental protection and economic diversification together.

What Might an Australian Ski Resort Look Like in 2050?

A major Australian resort in 2050 could look quite different from a resort operating several decades earlier.

The most commercially important groomed trails may depend heavily on manufactured snow.

Automated systems could begin snowmaking immediately whenever temperature and humidity become favourable.

High-elevation slopes may provide the most dependable natural skiing.

Lower areas could contain accommodation, restaurants, event spaces and non-ski attractions.

Summer activities may generate a much greater proportion of annual income.

Mountain biking and hiking could be considered core resort businesses rather than secondary attractions.

Strong natural snow seasons could still produce memorable skiing.

But the financial model might be designed so the resort remains sustainable even during disappointing winters.

Adaptation and the Broader Climate Are Connected

There are two separate but connected dimensions to the future of Australian snow tourism.

One is local adaptation.

Resorts can improve technology, manage snow more effectively, expand water storage, redesign operations and diversify their income.

The other is the wider climate trajectory.

Adaptation becomes more difficult as temperatures rise further.

Traditional snowmaking depends on climatic conditions.

There is a point beyond which warmer and more humid weather makes conventional snow production inefficient or impossible for extended periods.

This is why long-term discussion of Australian skiing often includes both resort adaptation and the broader direction of climate change.

The Future Is Not Simply “Snow” or “No Snow”

The future of Australian skiing should not be framed as a choice between two extreme outcomes.

The industry does not have to remain exactly as it is today or disappear entirely.

Many intermediate outcomes are possible.

High resorts may maintain substantial skiing.

Lower resorts may specialise in snow play and non-winter tourism.

Seasons may become shorter but more intensively managed.

Artificial snow may dominate major groomed trails.

Excellent natural winters may still occur periodically.

Booking behaviour could become more flexible.

Prices could change.

Summer tourism could become equally important as winter.

The Australian ski industry of the future may therefore remain active while looking significantly different from the industry of the past.

Major Lessons from the Warm 2026 Winter

The first important lesson from 2026 is the importance of reliability.

Natural snowfall alone cannot guarantee a successful ski season every year.

Resorts capable of making and managing snow have greater ability to maintain usable terrain during weak winters.

The second lesson is that snowmaking also has limits.

Warm and humid conditions reduce conventional snow production.

The third lesson is elevation.

Higher terrain generally has a climatic advantage.

The fourth lesson is diversification.

Businesses earning income during multiple seasons are less exposed to one disappointing winter.

The fifth lesson is the importance of long-term planning.

Mountain infrastructure is expensive and designed to operate for decades.

Investment decisions made now need to reflect the conditions that may exist many years in the future.

Outlook for Australia's Ski Industry

Australia is likely to continue having a significant snow-tourism industry.

Skiing and snowboarding remain popular recreational activities.

Families will continue wanting mountain holidays.

Strong snowfall events will still generate enthusiasm.

Major resorts have substantial infrastructure and adaptation capacity.

The central challenge will be maintaining economic resilience during weak seasons.

If warm winters similar to 2026 occur more frequently, artificial snow, water infrastructure, efficient grooming and year-round tourism will become increasingly important.

Large resorts may continue making substantial investments.

Smaller destinations may become more specialised.

Mountain communities may place greater emphasis on spreading tourism activity throughout the year.

The future will therefore depend on much more than the amount of snow falling naturally from the sky.

Technology, investment, elevation, environmental management, visitor behaviour and business strategy will all influence how Australian alpine tourism develops.

Frequently Asked Questions About Australia's Ski Industry and Warm Winters

Why was Australia's 2026 ski season difficult?

The supplied material describes the 2026 season as unusually warm, with limited natural snowfall, periods of rain and rapid deterioration of the snowpack. Warmer conditions increased the likelihood that precipitation would fall as rain rather than snow and accelerated melting of existing snow.

How deep was the snow at Spencers Creek in 2026?

The seasonal snow depth at Spencers Creek reportedly reached approximately 94.5 centimetres during August 2026 before declining. This was substantially below the depths that can occur during stronger Australian winters.

Does one poor season prove skiing will disappear in Australia?

No. Individual winters vary considerably. Australia will continue experiencing cold fronts, snowfall and occasional excellent seasons. The greater concern is declining average reliability over the longer term.

Why are lower ski resorts more vulnerable?

Temperatures at lower elevations are generally warmer. These resorts operate closer to the climatic boundary where precipitation changes between snow and rain. A relatively small warming can therefore create a large change in snow conditions.

Why does rain damage a ski resort?

Rain warms and compacts existing snow, accelerating melting. If the snowpack is already shallow, significant rainfall can expose vegetation and soil quickly.

Why is snow depth important?

Snow depth indicates the amount of accumulated snow available to support skiing and survive warm periods. A deeper base provides greater protection against short periods of melting or rain.

Will Australia still experience major snowstorms?

Yes. Natural weather variability will continue, and powerful storms can still deliver heavy snowfall even within a warmer climate.

What is artificial snow?

Artificial snow is manufactured by spraying very small water droplets into sufficiently cold air. The droplets freeze and accumulate on the ground, allowing resorts to create a durable ski surface.

Is machine-made snow different from natural snow?

Yes. Manufactured snow is generally denser than fresh natural powder. Its density makes it useful for building strong bases on heavily used ski runs.

Can snowmaking work when the temperature is above freezing?

Sometimes. Snowmaking depends on temperature and humidity together. Dry air can allow water droplets to cool through evaporation, enabling production when ordinary air temperature is slightly above zero.

What is wet-bulb temperature?

Wet-bulb temperature is a measurement incorporating both air temperature and humidity. It provides a better indication of snowmaking potential than ordinary temperature alone.

Can snowmaking completely replace natural snowfall?

Not easily. Snowmaking is expensive and requires water, electricity, infrastructure and suitable weather. It is excellent for protecting key terrain but is difficult to use as a complete replacement across very large mountains.

Does warming make artificial snow harder to produce?

Potentially. Resorts may need more artificial snow as natural conditions weaken, but warmer nights can reduce the number of suitable hours for conventional snowmaking.

What are snow factories?

Snow factories use refrigeration technology to manufacture snow or ice in conditions that are too warm for traditional snow guns. They may be useful for limited areas but can be expensive for large-scale mountain coverage.

Which Australian resorts are most exposed to warming?

Lower-elevation destinations and lower sections of individual resorts are generally the most vulnerable because they operate closer to the temperature threshold separating rain from snow.

Do Perisher and Thredbo face climate risks?

Yes. All Australian ski destinations are exposed to changing winter conditions. However, comparatively high terrain and extensive infrastructure can provide major resorts with greater capacity to adapt.

Are Victorian ski resorts also affected?

Yes. Falls Creek, Mount Hotham, Mount Buller, Mount Baw Baw and other Victorian destinations can all be affected by warm winters, although the degree of exposure differs according to elevation and infrastructure.

Why are Australian ski resorts vulnerable compared with some international resorts?

Australian mountains are relatively low compared with many ski regions in Europe and North America. Many Australian ski slopes therefore operate closer to the temperature range where rain becomes likely.

Could skiing become more expensive?

It could. Expanded snowmaking, water storage, energy infrastructure, grooming and lift investment can increase costs. Resorts must balance those expenses against the need to remain attractive and affordable to visitors.

How does a poor winter affect local businesses?

A weak season can reduce spending on accommodation, restaurants, equipment rental, transport, retail and other services. Seasonal employees may also receive fewer working hours.

How important is snow tourism to regional communities?

Snow visitors generate spending across a wide regional economy. Their expenditure can support accommodation providers, cafes, supermarkets, fuel stations, equipment shops and transport businesses far beyond the resort itself.

Can mountain biking replace skiing?

It is unlikely to replace skiing completely, but it can become an important complementary business. Mountain biking allows resorts to attract visitors and operate lift infrastructure outside winter.

What does four-season tourism mean?

Four-season tourism involves attracting visitors throughout the year through activities such as hiking, mountain biking, cycling, sightseeing, festivals, food events and nature experiences rather than depending almost entirely on winter skiing.

Will excellent Australian snow seasons still occur?

Yes. Strong seasons can still happen because weather varies naturally from year to year. The issue is whether excellent conditions become less dependable over the long term.

Why are September conditions important?

A deep snowpack can allow skiing to continue into September and sometimes beyond. Weak winter accumulation can cause the season to end earlier as spring temperatures rise.

Could some Australian ski seasons eventually last only a few weeks?

Some lower-altitude locations could experience shorter periods of dependable skiing if average winter temperatures increase. Higher resorts with extensive snowmaking are generally better positioned to maintain longer operations.

What can resorts do to adapt?

Possible strategies include more efficient snowmaking, greater water storage, automated snow guns, improved grooming, higher-elevation development, better weather forecasting, snow farming and expansion of year-round attractions.

What is snow farming?

Snow farming means strategically collecting, moving, storing or protecting snow so that it can be used where it is most valuable.

Does snowmaking use significant water?

Large artificial snow systems can require substantial quantities of water. Much of that water eventually returns to the catchment after melting, but resorts need adequate supplies and storage during snowmaking periods.

Does snowmaking use substantial electricity?

Yes. Energy can be required for pumps, compressors and related infrastructure. More efficient equipment and automated controls can help reduce unnecessary consumption.

Could Australian skiing operate without artificial snow?

During strong natural winters, extensive skiing can occur without relying entirely on manufactured snow. During weak seasons, however, modern snowmaking is increasingly important for maintaining dependable resort operations.

What was one of the main lessons of the 2026 winter?

The season showed how difficult Australian ski operations can become when warm conditions, rain and limited natural snowfall occur together. It also illustrated the value and limitations of artificial snow.

Is Australia's ski industry disappearing?

No. Australia continues to have established ski resorts, significant visitor demand and substantial alpine tourism infrastructure. The more likely long-term development is transformation rather than immediate disappearance.

Will ski resorts increasingly become mountain resorts?

That appears to be one important adaptation pathway. Destinations can generate income through skiing in winter while operating mountain biking, hiking, sightseeing, festivals and other activities during the rest of the year.

How could Australian ski resorts look by 2050?

Major resorts may rely more heavily on artificial snow for core groomed terrain, use highly automated snowmaking systems and concentrate skiing at higher elevations. Non-snow attractions could contribute a much larger proportion of annual revenue.

Should people stop booking Australian ski holidays?

Snow conditions vary greatly from season to season, so a single warm winter does not mean snow holidays are no longer possible. Travellers seeking greater certainty may monitor current conditions, choose higher destinations and use flexible booking arrangements.

Why is flexible booking likely to become more important?

If snow conditions become harder to predict months ahead, travellers may prefer accommodation and holiday packages that allow date changes or cancellations.

Could high-altitude resorts attract a larger share of visitors?

Potentially. If higher terrain retains snow more reliably than lower mountains, visitor demand may become concentrated at destinations with better altitude and snowmaking capacity.

Would this create other problems?

Greater concentration of visitors could increase accommodation demand, traffic, prices and crowding during the best snow periods while reducing tourism income in communities surrounding less reliable resorts.

Can better technology keep Australian skiing viable?

Technology can improve resilience considerably. More efficient snow guns, automated controls, improved pumps, weather sensors, forecasting and snow-management systems can help resorts make better use of limited cold periods.

Is technology alone enough?

No. Technology can reduce some risks but cannot completely remove the dependence of outdoor skiing on temperature and weather. Business diversification and broader climate conditions also matter.

Conclusion

Australia’s unusually warm 2026 winter illustrates the complicated future facing the country's alpine tourism industry. Limited natural snowfall, rain, rapid melting and shallow snow depths showed how strongly Australian resorts depend on temperature. Artificial snow provided an important defence, allowing strategically important ski runs to remain usable even when natural coverage was weak, but the season also highlighted the limits of relying exclusively on snowmaking.

The industry's future should not be understood through a simple prediction that skiing will either continue unchanged or disappear completely. A much more gradual transformation is possible.

Higher terrain may retain a comparative advantage. Artificial snow is likely to become increasingly important on groomed trails. Resorts may invest heavily in automated snowmaking, water storage, grooming and weather monitoring. Lower areas could shift toward beginner activities, snow play and non-winter attractions. Seasonal booking patterns may become more flexible, and businesses may seek revenue throughout the year rather than depending overwhelmingly on a few winter months.

Australia will continue to experience snowstorms and good ski seasons. Natural variability ensures that some winters will remain cold and snowy. What is becoming harder to assume is that every winter will provide deep and persistent natural snow for the length of season traditionally expected by resorts, businesses and visitors.

That distinction changes how investment decisions are made.

A lift built today may still be operating decades from now. A new reservoir or snowmaking network represents a long-term commitment. Accommodation developments and regional tourism infrastructure also require confidence in future demand.

For this reason, adaptation is becoming a central part of alpine tourism strategy.

Large resorts are likely to continue improving their ability to manufacture and preserve snow during favourable weather. Smaller resorts may develop specialised experiences rather than trying to compete across every type of skiing. Alpine towns may increasingly promote mountain biking, hiking, festivals, sightseeing and nature tourism to create steadier year-round economies.

The Australian ski industry therefore faces substantial challenges, but it also has meaningful strengths. Major population centres are located relatively close to the mountains, Australians remain interested in winter holidays, established resorts possess sophisticated infrastructure, and new technologies continue improving the ability to manage variable snow.

The decisive issue is likely to be adaptability.

Resorts that can combine reliable artificial snow on their most important terrain with strong non-winter tourism may be better placed to deal with increasingly unpredictable seasons. Businesses capable of spreading revenue across the entire year may also be less exposed to one disappointing winter.

The experience of 2026 can therefore be viewed as more than a poor ski season. It provides a practical example of the economic, technological and environmental decisions that Australian alpine tourism may increasingly need to confront.

The mountains will still receive snow. Australians will still ski and snowboard. Strong winters will still create excitement.

But the business of operating a ski resort may become very different.

Australia’s future mountain destinations may rely less on the assumption of a long natural-snow season and more on carefully managed snow, advanced technology, higher terrain, flexible visitor experiences and four-season tourism.

That transformation could determine how successfully the country's alpine communities continue welcoming visitors through the middle of the twenty-first century and beyond.

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